Sarah Palin’s One Nation Tour has created buzz regarding her potential interest in being the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. Palin, the 2008 Republican Vice Presidential candidate and former Governor of Alaska, has confounded the Republican establishment at every turn. Palin resigned as Governor of Alaska and signed a contract with Fox News. She marshaled her popularity from the 2008 presidential election and acted as a kingmaker in the 2010 congressional elections by making a number of early and controversial endorsements. Currently there are a number of actions that seem to foreshadow a run for 2012; however, the chances of her becoming the Republican presidential candidate are doomed. Here are 5 reasons why:
Questions about Palin’s experience dogged her through the 2008 presidential election and she has not done anything (and I mean anything) to change that perception. In a bizarre move she resigned as the Governor of Alaska after only serving for two years. She prefers to stay within the confines of her traditional supporters (Fox News / Conservative talk shows) and she has a tendency to weigh in on important matters using social media. America is not yet ready to elect someone who feels the most appropriate way to comment on ongoing legislation within 140 characters or less.
It is well known that a hostile media awaits any Republican Presidential candidate. Even the media’s darling in 2000, John McCain, was hammered mercilessly in the 2008 election. Palin is known for her open hostility to the liberal media and there are those are licking their chops at the opportunity to take pot shots at her. It can be argued that the liberal media has less influence in today’s election; it cannot be argued that a candidate will have to spend money in order to combat any caricatures that are created by the liberal media.
There is No Room for Palin this Year
The composition of the Republican field will make it difficult for Palin to win this year. Most polling shows Palin as competitive; however, that is built almost entirely on name recognition. The key factor is that Palin has a very low ceiling of possible support in the Republican Party. Her entrance into the race would force a fight between her and Michele Bachmann for the tea party voters and there is no guarantee that she will win that fight. Also, Tim Pawlenty is working hard to court the social conservatives. Her entrance into the race could also scare the Republican establishment and force them to realize they don’t have the luxury of waiting and forcing them to coalesce around the front runner Mitt Romney.
No Boots on the Ground
Palin’s appeal comes from an aura of invulnerability, and she could not survive and early loss in Iowa. Iowans expect to their candidates to get on the ground and get into the retail politics. Palin has great name recognition and is liked within the Republican Party, but she has not spent the time and resources necessary to compete in Iowa.
She is Not Running
The biggest reason she is not going to be the Republican Nominee is that she is not going to run. The Palin ‘Ëœbrand’ is dependent on being omnipresent and being a potential presidential nominee. In order for her to stay relevant she orchestrates events to keep her name in the news. Bottom line, Palin knows that she will profit more by being a kingmaker in the upcoming election and giving her more time to develop her political resume. Palin is not going to run this election cycle and therefore will not be the Republican nominee.